Bracketology
How do I fill out the brackets? We are getting ready for 2009 - more to come!
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The Numbers
Bracketology by the Numbers
Everyone knows that the tournament started with 65 teams, but few people have probably done the math to figure out how many possible brackets could be created without duplication. I have done such math work (as I am sure you are interested) and found this number to be 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 possible brackets.
That being said, the 65 vs 64 game has already been played, so the number decreases to 9,223,372,036,775,808 possible brackets. If you are in one of those "win an ungodly amount of money by picking a perfect bracket" contests, good luck - you'll NEVER do that. Moving on, I am going to try to provide some information to narrow down to fewer choices to help you select the best possible bracket to win your pool.
As you work through each of these brackets, you will see that it is very hard to find a clear cut #1 team (although Duke and UConn could be argued) and for that reason people are talking about the number of possible upsets they will see this year compared to brackets in the past. I disagree with such a statement. While I do feel there will be upsets as there are every year, I think there is a group of 8-12 teams that have a chance to win this year's Big Dance and most of them will make it to the sweet 16 and elite 8.
How bold do you want to be? Matchups #1 vs. #16 and #2 vs. #15
To start with, fill in your #1 seeds to the next round. There has never been a 16 seed that has won since the bracket moved to 64 teams in 1985. The 15 seeds are just 4-80 since 1985 which means you are pretty safe putting the #2 seeds through. But, there are certainly question marks with one of the #2 seeds this year - Tennessee. If you want to be very bold, give Winthrop the nod. If they can pull off the huge upset, you'd have a big leg up on your competition. In the end, I am going with Tennessee as the 4-80 mark reminds me how hard it is to unseat a #2 seed.
90% is a pretty big percentage: Matchups: #3 vs. #14 and #4 vs. #13
Ok, moving on past the #1 and #2 seeds, you now have two directions to move in. One way to go is to pick a few upsets with the best chance of turning Cinderella and hope they pan out. Or you pick every upset so you are able to brag to your friends that you selected the upsets in the early rounds and let them laugh at you when you have no one left come the Final 4 (where the points add up). I am taking the approach that it is best to have a few teams in mind and not to go over-board on upsets; particularly this year. For this reason, I would now like you to fill in the 3 and 4 seeds to win their games. The reason for this is that the #1, #2, #3 and #4 seeds have totaled 301 wins and just 35 losses (that means these teams have won about 90% of the time) since 1985. As I have said, there is a good chance one of these teams will lose in the first round but since that is so hard to predict, the odds are in your favor to have them all move on after the first round. By moving all these teams to the next round, the possible number of brackets drops all the way down to just 140,737,425,855,328. This is clearly a high number but significantly lower than the original number we started with.
Upset territory: Matchups: #5 vs. #12, #6 vs. #11, #7 vs. #10 and #8 vs #9
These pairings are the hardest to call. The most upsets come within these ranges and here's where your bracket is made or broken. The #5 vs. #12 has historically provided some of the greatest and most consistent upsets in the tournament. The 5 seeds have gone just 11-9 vs the 12 seeds in the past 5 years of the bracket. These numbers show that a 12 seed should be moving on (at least one), but don't go crazy this year with your 12 seed upsets. Pitt is the most likely 5 seed to move on past Kent State.
Good luck in your brackets!
Conferences
Going back to 1997 when the last of the six major college basketball conferences was born (the Big 12), 90% of all Final Four teams were from one of these six conferences. The "Power Six" as we call it consists of the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, and the SEC.
Two of the teams "other conference" teams that made it to the Final Four since 1997 (Marquette in 2003 and Louisville in 2005) are now part of the Power Six Conferences.
Taking that into consideration, 95% of the Final Four teams are now part of the Power Six. Empowered with that information, our suggestion is to fill your brackets out starting with the Final Four (utilizing teams from the Power Six of course) and working backwards.
The average total of all the seeds in the Final Four is 11. That means when you total up the seed of each Final Four participant, your total should probably be very close to 11. There is an average of 1.7 number 1 seeds that make the Final Four each year. A number 1 seed will win the tournament a little less than half the time. Either a number 2 or number 3 seed will win it 30-40% of the time. Now onto the individual seed match-ups, and where the upsets are likely to occur...
Final Four Tickets
NCAA Final Four Tickets - Strip (Includes both Semifinals and the Finals) April 4 2009
Wall Bracket
Get a Giant Fathead Bracket for your wall - click below
More to Come
